As I mentioned in the Week 16 waiver wire sleeper picks column, it’s a good thing the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* was not my only league. I made the playoffs in three other leagues, which gave me plenty of incentive to keep working hard doing the research it takes to write these columns and answer questions all week.
And luckily, despite having some bad matchups and making a few bad decisions, I was able to advance to the championship round in one of my leagues. Considering that it’s the league I’ve been in the longest – damn near a decade now, with some of my best friends – you can bet I’ll be overturning every stone to find an advantage. (Of course, when you have Tom Brady at QB and Michael Vick for an any-position flex spot, it’s not really that difficult….)
Before we delve into the Week 16 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 15 top-line picks:
- Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week
And now a quick look back at my Week 15 top-line picks:
- Start em hits: Matt Ryan, Jonathan Stewart, Jason Witten, Miami D
- Start em misses: Pierre Garcon (damn you Austin Collie!),
- Sit em hits: Christopher Ivory (was inactive due to hammy), Ben Roethlisberger; Green Bay D; Rob Gronkowski
- Sit em misses: Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice for the Playoffs
***Carolina and Pittsburgh play on Thursday night; Dallas and Arizona play on Saturday night.***
Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.
If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em QB: Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (v Seattle)
Choosing the start ‘em QB this week was tricky. I try not to make the pick obvious, which ruled out telling you to start guys with great matchups who you are probably already starting like Peyton Manning (at OAK) and Tom Brady (at BUF). In addition, the four teams with the worst passing defenses are all facing inexperienced QBs that I would not want to trust in the championship round: Dallas (John Skelton); Houston (Tim Tebow); Philadelphia (Joe Webb); Jacksonville (Rex Grossman).
So why did I settle on Freeman over the other guys you see in the bulleted list below? It’s pretty simple: he is the best combination of season-long consistency and matchup.
Freeman has thrown for at least one TD in nine straight games. He also only has one game all year in which he has thrown more than one interception, and he has just six INTs on the season. He has also run for over 300 yards, which gives him an extra point or two each week. Finally, Freeman and the Bucs face Seattle in Tampa Bay this week. The Seahawks’ pass defense is pathetic, having given up 26 TD passes on the season.
It’s the championship round, or perhaps the Final Four for you, and you need guaranteed production. Few QBs in the NFL have been as a consistently a 12+ point scorer this season as Freeman has been.
Josh Freeman fantasy football Week 16 projection: 230 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 35 yards rushing
Other start ‘em QBs for Week 16:
- Matt Schaub continues to rack up yards and TDs, despite not leading the Texans to many wins. I’m sure he’ll do it again versus Denver in Week 16.
- Jon Kitna is a solid play against Arizona in Week 16. While the main weakness of the Arizona D is against the run, the Cowboys have actually had more success in the red zone throwing the ball. Kitna has two TD passes in two straight games.
- David Garrard continues to be startable each and every week. Against Washington’s defense, he’s startable again this week.
- With Buffalo likely to be down, and New England sporting an inconsistent secondary, Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a terrible option this week.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (at Cleveland)
Joe Flacco was outstanding against the Browns when the teams played earlier this season. He threw three touchdowns and was not intercepted. As impressive as those stats were, however, they are actually an anomaly in terms of Flacco’s career numbers against Cleveland. In Flacco’s other four starts against Cleveland, he has just three total touchdowns and has been picked off twice.
Also, while Flacco’s overall numbers are very good this season, he is a guy who has not been as good on the road as he has been at home. Seven of Flacco’s eight interceptions this season have come on the road, though he has thrown 10 TDs in his seven road starts thus far.
I don’t think Flacco will put up terrible numbers this week, but with a lot of the top flight QBs having good matchups, and some usual borderline plays have really good matchups, I think Flacco slides down the list of QBs I’d want to use this week.
Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 16 projection: 235 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 16:
- I know that Eli Manning exploded with four TD passes last week, and now has 28 on the season, but he faces a Green Bay defense in Week 16 that is much tougher against the pass than Philadelphia.
- Sam Bradford is struggling mightily these days. The matchup isn’t terrible this week (at home v San Francisco), but you just can’t trust Sam right now.
- I am still not a big fan of Ben Roethlisberger. Carolina has given up just 16 TD passes on the season, and the Steelers offense continues to look a bit out of sync.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England (at Buffalo)
Few teams have been as bad as the Buffalo Bills against the run this year. Not only do they give up a little over a TD per game on the ground, but they give up an average of 150+ rushing yards as well. When one of the hottest backs in football is facing a defense this bad, it’s an obvious choice for the start ‘em RB.
Green-Ellis has scored at least one TD in four straight games (with two scores in two of those games). Over his last 11 games, Green-Ellis has scored in nine of them. With stout run defenses like the Jets, Bears, and Steelers included among those he has put up good numbers against, why in the world would you even consider sitting him against Buffalo?
BenJarvus Green-Ellis fantasy football Week 16 projection: 100 yards rushing, 1 TD
Other start ‘em RBs for Week 16:
- I know that Arian Foster disappointed you in Week 15, but assuming he plays this week (he was apparently dealing with an ankle injury) there are few matchups as good for RBs as Denver. Keep Foster in your lineup.
- Rashard Mendenhall did not score or eclipse 3.7 yards per carry in Week 13 or 14, leading to some worry among his owners. He rebounded in Week 15 against the Jets with 100 yards and a TD. Carolina gives up more than a TD per game on the ground, making Mendenhall an obvious start.
- Felix Jones had 80+ total yards for the 5th straight week in Week 15. While he only has one TD during that span, and continues to lose red zone carries to Tashard Choice, Jones is worth starting against an awful Arizona run defense. He is an especially good start in yardage-only and PPR leagues. And in TD-based leagues, Choice isn’t a terrible option himself.
- Mike Tolbert is like a poor man’s BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He doesn’t usually get the touches that The Lawfirm gets, but Tolbert has scored a TD in 10 of the Chargers’ 14 games. I like those odds, especially against a so-so Cincy run D.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em RB: Peyton Hillis, Cleveland (v Baltimore)
Before I go any further, a quick reminder: just because someone is listed as a sit ‘em, does NOT mean that you automatically sit them. Peyton Hillis will still likely be a top 20 back this week, but I put him to highlight his tough matchup, rough three-game stretch, and the fact that he is not a must-start in Week 16.
I imagine Hillis powered a lot of teams to the playoffs, and that many Hillis owners are still going in Week 16, which is part of why I wanted to list him here. The problem is that Hillis has not been nearly as good over the last three weeks as he had been during the 11 previous weeks. Hillis has not scored a TD since Week 12, though he did rack up 108 yards rushing against Buffalo.
This week, Hillis gets to face the less than generous Baltimore Ravens run defense that has given up just five rushing TDs on the season. Ask Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush what it’s like facing the Ravens. Now, you’ll recall that Hillis ran for 144 yards and a TD against Baltimore in 4. The way I see it, that was a much fresher Hillis – he’d never had more than 68 carries in a season coming into this one – and Baltimore’s run D has improved as the weather has gotten worse.
Final verdict: Hillis is still worth starting, but he could very well be the odd man out if you happen to be stacked at RB. Don’t be afraid to sit him if that’s the case.
Peyton Hillis fantasy football Week 16 projection: 65 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 4 catches, 30 yards
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 16:
- For all those who were excited about Tim Hightower before Week 15, do you now understand why I wasn’t? 6 carries for 16 yards against the pathetic Carolina run D. That’s terrible.
- The Rams had given up just 7 rushing TDs leading into Week 15. While the Chiefs scored two against them last week, the 49ers are not nearly as good as the Rams running the football. I don’t like either Brian Westbrook or Anthony Dixon this week.
- Atlanta is pretty good against the run, especially at home. With Chris Ivory dealing with a hamstring injury, I’d prefer not to use him this week if I can help it. And after what Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush did last week (nothing) I don’t want to use either of them either.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona (v Dallas)
Cardinals rookie QB John Skelton is not very good, and he has the putrid stats to prove it. What he is, though, is smart. He does not complete a lot of passes and he does not throw for a lot of yards, but whatever he does get goes to Larry Fitzgerald.
In Week 15, Fitzgerald had 9 of Skelton’s 17 completions and 125 of his 196 yards. This comes on the heels of two games in which Fitzgerald has caught at least four passes and had at least 61 yards. The downside is that Fitzgerald has no TDs since Week 11.
Enter: the Dallas Cowboys defense.
Coming into Week 15, no defense had given up more passing touchdowns than Dallas. The Cowboys had given up a whopping 31 and then let the immortal Rex Grossman toss four more against them last week. If Grossman can throw four TDs, surely Skelton can throw at least one against them…right? If he does, we know who it’s going to.
Larry Fitzgerald fantasy football Week 16 projection: 7 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week 16:
- After seeing what fresh-legged Vincent Jackson did last week, don’t you have to start him this week? Against a defense that game up two TD passes to Colt McCoy in Week 15, I think you do.
- After suffering another concussion, you have to think that Austin Collie will miss this week. If so, Pierre Garcon becomes a great option again.
- Mike Williams TB did it again. Another week, another touchdown, which is the 8th on the season for the rookie. If I think Josh Freeman is going to throw two TDs this week, certainly Williams will be catching at least one.
- Santana Moss caught two TDs last week and has another great matchup this week against Indy. Keep him in your lineups.
- Lance Moore now has 8 TD catches on the season and grabs 5-6 passes every week. What’s not to like?
Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Tennessee)
Bowe shocked the fantasy world by being the best WR in the league over the first 13 weeks of the season. He caught 14 TDs and during a three-game stretch from Week 12 through Week 12 he did not catch less than 109 yards or fewer than two TDs in any game. To put it simply, Bowe was awesome.
But then Week 13 happened, and Bowe got shut out. This was surprising, but he did have Champ Bailey on him. In Week 14, Bowe caught one pass for three yards as Brodie Croyle filled in for Matt Cassel. Okay, we all thought, he just needs Cassel back. Then, in Week 15, he got Cassel back and had just two catches for 53 yards against St. Louis. While that’s a nice average, it’s not a particularly strong fantasy day.
So what do you do now that we’re in Week 16, all the marbles are on the line, and the guy who carried you to the playoffs has now been worthless for three straight weeks? If it’s me, and I have decent alternatives, I sit him.
In addition to Bowe’s struggles over the past couple of weeks, he has to face a Tennessee pass D that is in the top third in league in terms of fewest TD passes allowed. While both Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter caught TD passes against the Titans last week, both were caught after the Titans had jumped out to a huge lead. I don’t think we’ll see Kansas City having to scramble playing catch up next week.
The Chiefs are built around the run and will continue to focus on the run now that their passing game has struggled for three straight weeks. Bowe is not a terrible option, but like Hillis, there is a chance that if you go this far that you have good alternatives. This would be a week to use them.
Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 60 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 16:
- Hines Ward continued his trend of being good one week and then not good the next. Since he’s not catching TDs, he’s really not worth gambling on.
- Michael Crabtree appeared to be ready to break out earlier this season, but he has just one TD catch over the last four games and has not caught more than three passes in any game. Josh Morgan is actually a better option right now than Crabtree.
- Mr. Hit or Miss Robert Meachem was a miss in Week 15. Unless you’re desperate, I would not want to roll the dice on him in the championship round.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em TE: Kevin Boss, New York Giants (at Green Bay)
Boss will never overwhelm you with outstanding catch or yardage totals, but he has caught TDs in three of the Giants’ last four games. With Steve Smith out for the season, it appears that Boss has stepped into the role of Manning’s trusted short and over-the-middle option. While he’s pretty hit or miss, needing a TD to have decent value, he’s been a “hit” more than not lately and New England tight ends are doing well against Green Bay so far on the Sunday night.
Kevin Boss fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em TEs for Week 16:
- Owen Daniels had another nice day and is back to his old self, catching 4-5 passes for 60-80 yards per game. Perhaps he can even mix in a TD this week.
- Another NFC East tight end that is doing the most with limited targets is Brent Celek. He has TDs in two of the last three games and at least 50 yards in each game.
- Benjamin Watson is definitely worth starting when Colt McCoy is his QB.
- I guess it’s Rob Gronkowski‘s turn to start, right?
Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em TE: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans (at Atlanta)
You might think I’m crazy, seeing as how Graham is coming off a two-TD game in Week 15. However, consider the following:
- No team has been stingier against opposing tight ends this season than Atlanta.
- After seeing Graham score two TDs this week, don’t you think Atlanta will be keying on Graham this week? I do. Is the young, inexperienced Graham ready for that?
- The Saints spread the ball around so much that it is terribly to difficult to predict from week to week who will have a solid numbers other than Marques Colston and Lance Moore.
- Graham had one catch in Week 14 before catching 5 passes for just 29 yards but two TDs in Week 15. Do you want to count on a player that volatile for your title round?
I think there are safer options this week. Graham may very well prove to be a poor man’s Antonio Gates in coming seasons as a bball player turned great tight end, but this isn’t the week to trust him.
Jimmy Graham fantasy football Week 16 projection: 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 16:
- Brandon Pettigrew just isn’t the same without Shaun Hill targeting him a bunch each week. You can’t trust him right now. (However, Hill may end up starting this week. If that ends up happening, upgrade Pettigrew a bit.)
- Dustin Keller had another worthless week. Tough to trust him anymore either.
- I guess it’s Aaron Hernandez‘s turn to sit, right?
Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘em Defense: New York Jets (at Chicago)
Don’t get cute or overthink yourself come championship time. The Jets love to blitz and Jay Cutler can get flustered by blitzing teams. The Bears will also be coming off a short week, having played Monday night against the Bears. And while the Jets have struggled recently, the defense has played pretty well against everyone but New England. This is a very solid option.
New York Jets fantasy football Week 16 projection: 17 points or less, 3 TOs, 3 sacks
Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 16:
- I know that Pittsburgh is without Troy Polamalu, but getting to face Jimmy Clausen cancels that out.
- You know what I said about not getting cute and overthinking yourself? That applies to the Chicago Bears too. I am still not a believer in the Jets’ offense, which makes the Bears a solid play this week.
- The San Francisco-St. Louis game features two decent defenses and a couple of struggling offenses. I think either is a nice play in what should be an ugly, low scoring game.
Fantasy Football Week 16 Sit ‘em Defense: Dallas Cowboys (at Arizona)
For some reason, people have been warming to the Dallas Cowboys defense, despite the fact that it’s been one of the worst in the league all season. I have to admit, even I thought they’d be worthwhile against Rex Grossman last week, but then Grossman went out and tossed 4 TDs against them. While the Cowboys still got sacks and a few turnovers, it’s tough to be a consistent fantasy defense when you’re giving up 28 points per game. Even against John Skelton this week, I don’t like the Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys fantasy football Week 16 projection: 24 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 TO
Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 16:
- In that same game, I don’t like Arizona either. I think we’re in for a high scoring Saturday night affair.
- Atlanta’s defense is very good, especially at home, but they face the Saints this week. I have a feeling we’ll see some points scored indoors with these two teams. I’d like to bench both Atlanta and New Orleans if I could.
The comment section is below for all your Week 16 questions. Ask away!
NOTE: I will not be answering questions from Wednesday, December 22rd starting at about 5:00 until Friday morning (the 24th). So don’t panic if you don’t get answers right away. I’ll do my best to get all caught up before kickoff on Sunday.
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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.
